Of Mice and Men Task 3: Passage Analysis | …

The annual average air temperature for 2016 for the Arctic north of 80°N was more than 3.5 degrees Celsius (6.3 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1951 to 1980 reference period, the warmest year yet, and most years during the past decade had annual average temperatures between 2 to 2.5 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above the reference period. Geographically, the NOAA NCEP reanalysis shows that recent warming is primarily located over the Arctic Ocean, and smaller warming trends are seen in the circum-Arctic land areas.

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On the other side of the Arctic, the Northeast Passage (or Northern Sea Route) along the coast of Siberia appears largely open as shown by NSIDC data, though operational analysis by the shows some remaining ice along the coast of the Taymyr Peninsula.

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Rick Thoman of the compiled an analysis of the combined Chukchi and Beaufort Seas ice extent from the product. MASIE is based on operational ice analyses at the U.S. National Ice Center and is archived and distributed by NSIDC. It shows that 2017 tracked near record lows for the region through much of the summer, but after mid-August the pace of ice loss slowed relative to recent years. While it appears unlikely that extent in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas will reach a record low (set in 2012), it will still be among the four or five lowest in the MASIE record (Figure 3). Note that the range in dates for the minimum extent in the region differs from those for the Arctic as a whole and tend to be later, ranging from September 10 in 2015 to September 25 in 2007 and 2008. In other words, the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas may continue to lose ice even after the overall Arctic minimum extent is reached. From the (not shown), the Chukchi/Beaufort minimum has occurred as early as August 14 in 1980 to as late as October 2 in 1991.

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Figure 4. The map at top shows an analysis of sea ice concentration on November 30, 2017 in the area of the Bering and Chukchi Seas. The graph at bottom shows the combined sea ice concentration from 1978 to 2017, based on Sea Ice Index data.

Credit: Rick Thoman of the NOAA National Weather Service Alaska Region

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As the Arctic sea ice cover continues to thin, convergent sea ice motion can more readily pile up ice into large ridges. Such ridges can be hazardous to marine activities in the Arctic. Divergent ice motion produces openings in the ice called leads, where new ice can readily grow. Winds are the main driver for both ridging and lead formation. A single storm event can lead to significant redistribution of sea ice mass through ridging and new leads. As part of the Norwegian Young Sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition, colleagues at the Norwegian Polar Institute made detailed sea ice thickness and ice drift observations before and after a storm in an area north of Svalbard (Figure 5). Results showed that about 1.3 percent of the level sea ice volume was pressed together into ridges. Combined with new ice formation in leads, the overall ice volume increased by 0.5 percent. While this is a small number, sea ice in the North Atlantic is typically impacted by 10 to 20 storms each winter, which could account for 5 to 10 percent of ice volume each year.

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Given the plot of the poem about a young boy having his peers over celebrate his birthday, one might be automatically compelled to say the rite of passage is for him, however with a closer analysis of the poem in its entirety, one can argue the title and the plot hold deeper meaning.

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Figure 5. This figure shows a composite image from Sentinel-1 SAR imagery for August 29, 2017 overlaid with passive microwave sea ice concentration from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensor. Red/pink shades indicate regions of high (more than 90 percent) concentration, while green/brown shades indicate lower (~30-70 percent) concentration. Open water is in black to blue/gray shades. Open water is evident between floes of ice in the low concentration regions.

Credit: Image from , courtesy Leif Pedersen and Roberto Saldo